WAR IS IN THE WIND. Or at least that’s what the Israeli military want everyone to think since Israeli forces have just staged an ‘exercise’ which pretty much replicates a full scale attack on Iran and in particular the Iranian nuclear facilities.

Military and political analysts seem to agree that the purpose of staging such an exercise was to send a message to Iran, and to the rest of the world – Stop your nuclear programme or suffer the consequences.

That Israel has Iran in their sights is not however news. As far back as 2005 the attack on Iran has been predicted, indeed at that stage it was theorised that it might take the form of a joint US/Israeli strike force.

The Israeli exercise earlier this month involved hundreds of Israeli warplanes, including F-15s, F-16s and aerial refueling tanker aircraft. The size and scope of the exercise ensured that the United States and other nations in the region saw it and took notice. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday warned against the use of force on Iran, saying there was no proof it was trying to build nuclear weapons.

However all of the warning signs are there. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warned on the 4th of June that drastic measures were needed to stop Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. He said Iran must be shown “there will be devastating consequences if it did develop such weapons“. Then Israeli deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz – a former defence minister – said earlier this month that military strikes to stop Iran developing nuclear weapons looked “unavoidable“.

Of course the Israeli military won’t confirm or deny anything at this point, instead opting to issue a statement saying only that the Israeli air force “regularly trains for various missions in order to confront and meet the challenges posed by the threats facing Israel.”

It’s all looking decidely dodgy at this juncture. Maybe Branson should send in one of his ‘elders‘ to make a deal before it gets out of control and escalates into a full blown conflict.

If a conflict is avoided and there is no apparent reason in the media for such a development, check to see if an elder was in the region… because these folks tend to get in under the radar and negotiate peace accords before most people know they were even in the country.

There is a rumour flying around that one of the elders actually had an agreement in progress with Saddam which could have averted war, but the US upped their timetable and went in 24 hours early.

Of course it could just be a rumour  

 

THE PAPERS and online news sites are full of stories today relating to the mounting death toll in Iraq, specifically the US troops death toll, because the official figure has reached 4000 dead apparently; the latest to die were four soldiers whose patrol vehicle was blown up by a bomb in southern Baghdad on Sunday last weekend.

Most of the commentators and journalists are drawing comparisons between Iraq and Vietnam at this point, and reaching conclusions such as the US cannot successfully fight more than 2 “small wars” at once with any chance of emerging victorious.

I’ve written previously about the mounting civillian casualties and deaths in Iraq which just continues to spiral out of control and out of sight for most people. Back in October 2006 I posted an article citing the estimated civilian casualties at over 650,000, and things have only gone from bad to worse since then. Multiple sources seem to agree that this estimate is reasonably accurate and yet it still continues to be largely ignored.

What struck me as odd today however – because I suffer from the same infomation overload and statistic fatigue that everyone else does when talking about Iraq – is that of those 4000 US dead 97% of them happened after Bush declared victory in the “battle for Iraq” back on May 1st 2003 when he said that “major combat” was over.

Anyone else think this is just a teensy weensy bit of a PR problem for the outgoing el presidente and the republican party in general?

To quote from his speech directly:-

The battle of Iraq is one victory in a war on terror that began on September the 11, 2001 — and still goes on. That terrible morning, 19 evil men — the shock troops of a hateful ideology — gave America and the civilized world a glimpse of their ambitions. They imagined, in the words of one terrorist, that September the 11th would be the “beginning of the end of America.” By seeking to turn our cities into killing fields, terrorists and their allies believed that they could destroy this nation’s resolve, and force our retreat from the world. They have failed.

That was then and this is now. Fast forward to 2008 and el presidente is still making victory speeches about the “successes in Iraq” on the five year anniversary of the illegal invasion war conflict in Iraq.

I’m sure the families of the dead 4000 US soldiers, the families of the 650,000 dead Iraqi civiliians and probably the relatives of US troops still on the ground over there in Iraq are really looking forward to his next victory speech…. oh wait, that’s right, he’s out of office at the end of the year isn’t he?

I guess it will be someone else from the Whitehouse making the regular victory speech in a year or so and all we will have to do is update the death toll figures again in response.

 

 

IT’S NOT THAT LONG ago that I wrote a piece on the latest trend towards handing over everything to the machines (you laugh now, but stick around, it’s coming!) and in that instance it was the UK military in the frame with their latest unmanned hunter killer robots.  Eh no – this is not a piss take, it’s actually happening.

Today it’s the turn of the yanks in the endless quest towards outsourcing everything a soldier could do to a machine instead. I refer of course to the so-called “Master Plan” from the US Navy to develop and deploy a fleet of unmanned surface vessels (USVs) to help win the global war on yawn, boring, etc; you get the idea. This master plan – no really, that’s what they call the document – was published back in July 23rd this year and includes multiple types of surface robotic and heavilly armed vessels.

Don’t you just feel safer all ready?

Still, not to be outdone by those water-lovers the US land lubbers (aka the Pentagon) has been developing tiny insect like robots as well, and as recently as yesterday there have been reports of seeing these little buggers in the wild, as printed by the Washington Post. These insect drones can be used for recon work, for spying on people, they can be used to help guide some nice big fat missiles to a target, hell they could even be used to kill someone directly, and now they are out and about in the population and streets of the USA.

Still clinging to that illusion of safety?

There used to be a time we were all woried about the Russian commie pinko bastards taking over the world. Then it was the turn of the Chinese. Then it was the aliens with their fiendish rectal probes, and now it’s the machines.

I guess some things never change, but really – do we have to help speed up the rise of the machines to world domination by handing it to them on a plate?

I REMEMBER many years ago talking to an Irish army ranger buddy who was about to sign up for his third tour in Lebanon. He had a wife, a young child and pretty decent family to support him back here, but each time the opportunity came, he went back into the mouth of hell for another tour of duty.

I knew that the pay was better, much better than simply serving here at home… but that wasn’t what drew him back each time. It was much more basic than that, but yet something I’d never actually considered until then.

What pulled him into harms way every time was the opportunity to do what he had been training to do all his career, but never really getting the opportunity to do it since Ireland is basically a neutral country. Basically he got to get his gun off, for want of a better way of putting it… and it became addictive. Where else was he going to try out all the new techniques and get to do some fun gun stuff?

Today, as I read that the latest tactic being put to use by some elements of the US forces in Iraq is what’s called “baiting”, I’m reminded of that conversation with the Irish ranger. Baiting involves essentially planting some potentially interesting items in the vicinity (detonation cords, weapons, expolsives, ammunition etc.) and then staking the area out from a distance with snipers. Any poor sods who happen to come along and pick something up are then classed as an enemy and promptly shot if they try to walk away with the item in question.

In other words, target practice for the lads… fun gun stuff out where the rules don’t apply any more.

When I read about this today I just thought to myself… here we go again. In the middle of a war zone the rules tend to go out the window when it suits, and right now what better way to get some real honest-to-gawd sniping practice in than to basically bait some traps around the place and wait for the perfect shot. Where else are these lads going to get that sort of practice? As the t-shirts over at Tshirtinsurgency.com say, could this be the Best War Ever?

Well, at least someone is enjoying the experience, ’cause I’m damn sure the Iraqis aren’t.

Right now it’s unclear how widespread this practice is within the US military in Iraq, but an investigation is underway to try to uncover exactly what has been authorised and by whom. In a sworn statement published by the Washington Post, the leader of an elite US Army Ranger sniper scout platoon, Capt Matthew Didier, described baiting as “putting an object out there that we know they will use, with the intention of destroying the enemy“.

He then went on to say that members of the US military’s Asymmetric Warfare Group had visited his unit in January and given them “drop items” to be used “to disrupt the AIF [Anti-Iraq Forces] attempts at harming Coalition Forces and give us the upper hand in a fight”.

Apparently the only guidence given to the snipers was that when someone picked up the ‘bait’… if they put it back down again they were ‘ok’, but if they tried to walk away with it they were to be ‘dealt with’.

Now imagine you are walking down the street and find something like that on the road. Yes – you might potentially be a bad guy and try to take it for some nefarious future deed, but you might also be picking it up off the street to hand in to the relevant authorities… but instead all you get for your community oriented good deed is a bullet in the back of your head.

How fucked up is that?

Worse still, within months of the “baiting” programme being introduced, three snipers from Capt Didier’s platoon, which was attached 1st Battalion of the 501st Infantry Regiment, were charged with premeditated murder after using “drop items” to make shootings appear legitimate. Yeah right! Who’d have thunk it?

Best war ever indeed.

LANGUAGE IS A WONDERFUL thing, but it’s also a convenient way to mask the truth sometimes. One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter yes? Are they prisoners of war or “Enemy Combatants” over there in Gitmo? When does Iraq become a civil war and not a police action? Actually when does a conflict become a war? The list is endless.

The use of language has always been a very powerful weapon in the politics of persuasion and the media generally laps it up and plays along because it’s all good press and sells newspapers and TV advertising slots. It’s a perfect symbiotic relationship between the media, the politicans and the consumers. The politicians invent the lie, the media propagates it and the public eat it up willingly and convince themselves that they are “informed” as a result.

So how informed are you about the cyberwar cyberterror information warfare denial of service issue which occurred in Estonia earlier this year? Did you realise it was the beginning of the end? Have you started building your electronic proof bunker yet?

In April Estonia’s government moved a Soviet-era war memorial commemorating an unknown Russian killed fighting the Germans. Not a big deal you would think, but you’d be wrong. Estonia broke away from the then Soviet Union back in 1991 and has been making it’s own decisions and carving it’s own future ever since then. This seemingly innocuous decision to move the statue sparked off riots in the country between the ethnic russian communities and those who couldn’t care less about the “old country”. To make matters worse in Moscow, President Vladimir Putin very publicly criticized Estonia and demonstrators blockaded the Estonian embassy.

And that’s about the point when things started to go all cyberpunk and weird and the cyberwar broke out…

The Estonian government says its state and commercial websites – including a number of banks – were bombarded by mass requests for information – overwhelming their computer servers. Despite the fact that there are only 1.4 million people in Estonia it is actually one of the most wired places on the planet, largely due to the country’s parliament deciding that Internet access is a basic human right. They have even had e-voting since 2005. This very connectivity is what was exploited in a three week denial of service attack which – at the time – was alleged to have been orchestrated by Russia in retalliation for the insult of moving this war memorial.  Russia denied any involvement and then NATO were called in to assist. Yes, you read that right. NATO were called in to provide technical assistance in beefing up Estonia’s electronic defences against this 21st century implementation of a siege. Welcome to the cyberwar.

Some pundits called this the first instance of real cyberwarfare and hint of what was to come. The media jumped on the bandwagon and there are lots of news items out there in the ether helping to raise the paranoia levels around the planet. “It’s no longer science fiction” the articles scream. “The future of warfare is here” they proclaim. “State sponsored computer crime” is a reality. All the usual hyperbole and paranoia fuelled articles surfaced and were consumed by hungry readers across the globe. Eventually though Estonia changed its language and the press followed suit. Cyberwar was downgraded to “cyberterror”. An analysis by Arbor Networks’ Jose Nazario concluded that the distributed denial of service attacks targeting Estonia websites beginning in late April were not the work of the Russian government – so the need to change the language was obvious. The focus then shifted from a state sponsored attack to “terrorism”, everyones favourite word these days.

And of course we can’t have a cyberwar without a complimentary cyberconflict now can we?  The prevailing opinion is that the denial of service (DOS) episode in Estonia was the work of disgruntled (but ‘Net savvy) protestors. In this respect it’s being referred to as a cyberconflict rather than a war, much the same way the ongoing electronic exchanges between Pakistan and India are being called a cyberconflict. That’s not to say however that the powers that be aren’t already warming us consumers up for even more threat level orientated paranoia of the state-sponsored kind. Bad-guys-du-jour China are getting in a lot of press lately because of their so-called first strike cyberwar strategy and capability.

Hell it won’t be long before the USA tries to convince us that all those islamic militants and terrorists around the world are actually connected to the web and wreaking havoc across the globe. Can you see it yet? A bunch of appropriately dressed terrorists (they have to be so that the public can identify them as the bad guys) crowded around a PC plotting the downfall of western civilisation.

The bottom line here is that a rose by any other name… is still a rose. A cyberwar cyberconflict cyberterrorism event is still a bloody attack by one party on another, in whatever form it takes. The only difference is the medium, the method… but the same thing has been going on forever. For what it’s worth I have always rated things on a very simple sliding scale as follows:-

1) State Sponsored: I don’t care if it’s called a conflict, a police action or a war, it’s still one state or nation forcing itself on another. Ever since one nation developed an army and inflicted itself upon another we’ve been refining this practice and even now with all the technology and button pushing it still results in the same finale; dead bodies, smoking ruins and huge budget deficits.

2) Corporately Sponsored: Espionage is espionage, business is business. It’s been going on since the dawn of commerce and will always be there. Get over it. It’s part of doing business that your competitors will always want to get the advantage on you so whether its insider trading in Wall Street or dishing the secret formula for Coke Cola, it’s nothing new. If you want to play in the big leagues, bring a baseball bat.

3) Privately Sponsored: Ah yes, the perfect expression of a grudge. Revenge, divorce, dissolution of partnerships… it’s all the same. One party wants the other one fucked and as long as you have the money anything is possible. There are whole industries out there which developed from this primal urge to get one over on your ex. It helps if you have the cash though.

4) Non-Sponsored: Hackers, phishers, slackers, script kiddies, students, kids… the usual collection of miscreants with too much knowledge and time on their hands. A little knowledge goes a long way and whether it’s hacking into the school computers to change your grades or splatting your college professors car with eggs it all amounts to the same thing. Too much talent combined with too much free time equals trouble; always has and always will.

So – next time you pick up a paper and read all about the latest cyberwarfare or information war event around the globe; don’t panic. It’s nothing new. It’s not the end of the world. It’s not even the start of the end of the world. It’s all just the same old crap regurgitated into a new language to suit the political need to keep you afraid and under control; because when you are scared you are easier to control. When you are scared you will buy into anything they tell you.

So don’t be scared. You don’t need to switch off your PC just yet. No need to build an electronic proof bunker under your house. It’s just language folks. See through the language and discern for yourself what is actually going on if you can.

Oh – and a little bit of cynicism will get you a long way

IT’S ALL GOING WRONG for Bush & Co. these days. Last week the prosecutions’ cases against the first two Guantanamo detainees fell apart due to the language used in the Military Commissions Act. As if this wasn’t embarrasing enough for the current US administration, a court in Richmond, Virginia last night ruled that President Bush cannot order the military to indefinitely imprison a suspected al-Qaeda operative as an “enemy combatant“.

Given that all the 380 odd remaining detainees at Gitmo are currently classed as “enemy combatants” this poses a bit of a problem for ol’ Dubya and his cronies.

As enlightened as this ruling sounds, it’s not all clear sailing however. The powers that be could simply just decide to transfer the prisoners from Gitmo to somewhere in the mainland USA and then process them from there. At that point the government could still transfer detainees to civilian authorities to face criminal charges, initiate deportation proceedings, hold them as witnesses in a grand jury case or detain them for a limited period under the Patriot Act – so basically there are still options, however perverted, to the legal beagles in Bush & Co. should they wish to take them… but it’s still a huge embarrasment on the part of the administration in failing actually bring a single successful case against any detainee thus far. And it just goes from bad to worse…

Hell, even Colin Powell is calling for the immediate closure of Gitmo. He also called for the abolition of the military tribunal system, saying terror suspects should face trial under existing US federal laws – so even the old gaurd are starting to change their mind about this purgatory in paradise.

Even so, the US Justice Department is urging the courts to reconsider their decision and you can bet all the movers and shakers are working the same schtick in the background with all their legal contacts… but slowly and surely Bush still seems to be loosing their grip. Finally. Hopefully.

Meanwhile the detainees – some of whom may well be guilty of their alleged crimes but under the current so-called justice system we will never know - continue to sweat it out, continue to be endlessly interrogated and of course continue to non-exist as far as the rest of the world is concerned. And as for the American troops on guard duty there, well they have their own problems. According to this Gaurdian Unlimited article the U.S. military is currently probing how guards failed to prevent the death of a Guantanamo Bay detainee last month, an apparent suicide in one of the most closely monitored detention camps for suspected al-Qaida and Taliban members.

And let’s not forget the input this week from one of the original prosecutors at the Nuremberg war crimes tribunal. To quote prosecutor Henry King Jr: “The US war crimes tribunals at Guantanamo have betrayed the principles of fairness that made the Nazi war crimes trials at Nuremberg a judicial landmark… I think Robert Jackson, who’s the architect of Nuremberg, would turn over in his grave if he knew what was going on at Guantanamo“.

So then – are Bush & Co. loosing their touch? Is the rest of America finally waking up to the disaster that is Bush & Co.? The rest of the world certainly has, but is America catching on to that reality yet? Hmmmm.

Maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel. Just maybe.

I guess we will have to wait and see.

THE NEWS sites are buzzing today with the latest announcement that the US Senate has voted to approve a bill which requires US troops to be withdrawn from Iraq within 11 months.

This latest development follows a vote in the US House of Representatives which makes further funding of the war in Iraq conditional on a timetable for a US troop pullout, but here’s the rub…

This Democrat-sponsored bill will now go before President George Bush for approval, but of course he has said he will veto it immediately. Point blank. End of story.

So perhaps someone (stateside) can explain to me what the point of the House of Representatives and Senate bringing such a bill in front of Bush is exactly? Perhaps I don’t understand the subtle nuances of the American political system enough or maybe I’m disadvantaged because I’m observing the proceedings from the outside looking in (from Europe)… but I just don’t see the point of all that effort when the President can – and will – simply veto it.

I mean, it’s not like the veto will come as a surprise to anyone now is it? Is this just some wasted effort for posterity so the history books can record who was on which side of the debate?

Can someone explain this to me please? Thanks.

IT’S NICE TO see the Bush Administration taking their Presidential Records Act so seriously, now that they are all on the down slope of a lame duck presidency. In a blatant move to avoid any embarrasing investigations or congressional subpoenas the lads at the Whitehouse have taken it upon themselves to delete or ‘misplace’ any potentially dangerous emails (in other words, evidence) to great effect.

In theory the Presidential Records Act orders that all White House emails are stored forever; that’s it. Forever. I think you would agree that this is a fairly clear statement of requirements which would lead one to suspect that deleting emails is you know, bad. However Bush’s team has been getting around this by using their Republican National Committee accounts instead of their Whitehouse accounts, which of course can be deleted – even though this is in complete contradiction to standard White House email policy which states that ”Federal law requires the preservation of electronic communications sent or received by White House staff”.  

And even if the above was not clear enough for some poor and confused souls in the Whitehouse, the offical handbook also states that “commercial or free e-mail sites and chat rooms are blocked from the EOP network to help staff members ensure compliance and to prevent the circumvention of the records management requirements.”

Still, as we all know annoying things like Federal law and Executive Office of the President rules don’t apply to the men and women of Bush’s Administration. They are beyond the law, not just above it, but completely beyond it.

As with all other things Bush related when it comes to trying to get to the truth of things it’s a case of “There’s nothing to see here, move along“, more so now that all evidence which may ever have been even remotely related to some truth has been systematically deleted and ‘misplaced’ in order to avoid any dodgy questions or complications in the future.

I think that picture above says it all really; it’s Bush’s stance on Freedom Of Information. Then again he’s probably much too busy destroying the middle east and pretending that climate change doesn’t exist to care about this kind of stuff; sure that’s what he has flunkies for right? I’m surprised he even lifted his own finger!

THIS READS like the stuff of cheap airport fiction novels, but it’s actually from testimony in the ongoing courts martial of several US marines for committing murder in Iraq. What it boils down to is as follows: Several marines went on a “hunt” for a known insurgent named Saleh Gowad with the intention of killing him. He had previously been captured and released several times and they decided to do something about it.

Failing to find him, they then randomly seized a disabled ex-policeman – Hashim Awad - from his home as he slept and then proceeded to setup an elaborate infra-red spoof to fool the overhead spy drones into thinking a legitimate battle had ensued in order to cover up his murder.

This ‘spoofing’ included wrapping a marine around the already bound body of Awad so as to fool the drone into thinking a single infra-red image was recorded and setting up a fake scene where one marine pretended to be the insurgent ‘planting a bomb’ while the rest of the squad watched from close by. The recorded thermal imagery from the aircraft seemed to show troops watching an insurgent digging by the road, perhaps to place a bomb.

Then it get’s really convoluted… Once they were satisfied that the drone passes had recorded what they needed it to see, they dragged this innocent civilian into the bomb crater, took a stolen AK47 rifle and fired off a few shots, leaving the spent shells on the ground as ‘evidence’ of the firefight and then they shot the still-bound Awad several times and setup the remainder of the scene to resemble a quick but deadly firefight. They even left a shovel in the crater to make it look like Awad was digging in the ground to plant a roadside bomb when the squad came upon him.

Thing is, the thermal imagery actually backed up their claims and NCIS investigators would have let them get away with it, if not for the surprise confession of a Navy medic involved in the incident. Once he ‘fessed up, others started singing their songs too in the hopes of getting some deals from the prosecutors. Until that point the murder was completely covered up.

“Congratulations gents, we just got away with murder,” Sergeant Lawrence Hutchins III is reported as saying to his squad once the deed was done, and they almost did.

Amazing. Absolutely amazing how easy it seems to be to cover up what’s going on in Iraq these days. You can grab the full story over at Wired if you’re interested.